WELCOME TO SPINOBAMA, THE ORIGINAL AND ONE AND ONLY - AT 7:34 A.M. ET:  Again, oh the immodesty, I must say that we told you so. But we don't claim predictive powers here, so I humbly admit that this "prediction" could have been made by anyone who reads My Weekly Reader and above:

The Court of Obama is spinning the release of the American journalist held by Iran as a great and famous victory for the "engage the Americans" faction in Iran.  We caution you.  This is pure speculation bordering on baloney.  We say again that the release was part of a well-practiced diplomatic game and represents no change in Iranian policy.  The New York Times dutifully reports the spin of the favored president:

American officials said Iran’s handling of the Saberi case underlined a deepening divide within its leadership about how to respond to President Obama’s recent overtures. It also reflects domestic politics a month before Mr. Ahmadinejad faces a critical election, according to analysts.

“Those who are trying to engage the U.S. won out,” said a senior administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “There wasn’t going to be any major new administration initiative toward Iran without this case resolved.”

Come on, guys.  The only people who win out in Iran are those favored by the ruling mullahs.  It gets worse:

American officials and outside analysts believe Ms. Saberi’s arrest was politically motivated, at a time when the Obama administration is reaching out to Iran after nearly three decades of hostility. The Iranian government, some analysts said, sought to use the arrest of a journalist to gain leverage in talks with the United States over its nuclear program and other matters. 

And...

But with Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton both taking up Ms. Saberi’s cause, analysts said, the political cost of keeping her in prison may have come to seem too high.

COMMENT:  We don't buy a word of that stuff.  It wasn't the arrest that the Iranians thought would buy them leverage, it was the release of the journalist. Are "analysts" actually saying, with a straight face, that the Iranians didn't realize that high officials of the U.S. government would take up Saberi's case?  The Iranians play the West like a violin.  Indeed, The Times does quote one analyst who provides a bit of sobriety:

Some analysts warned the United States against drawing too much comfort from Iran’s decision.

“They pushed her to the verge of a nervous breakdown for a transient political purpose,” said Abbas Milani, director of Iranian studies at Stanford University. “It shows the difficulty the Obama administration will have in negotiating with a regime that has so little value for the lives of its citizens.”

That is true.  And the administration was restrained in its reponse to the release, never thanking Iran.  But Mr. Milani is right.  The learning curve for this administration in dealing with a country that has a history of shrewd diplomacy is just beginning.

May 12, 2009